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DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT SCIENCE
MARKETING ANALYSIS & MODELLING – MSCI 582 – 2018/2019
Coursework
Part A
Incredible Brews Ltd has developed a new type of drink. Their product is synthetic and
simulates alcohol taste without its adverse effects. State has approved selling the product.
Incredible Brews Ltd needs to decide on the looks and the texture of the drink. Being fully
synthetic it is easy for the R&D department to change the simulated ABV%, the drink’s colour,
body, bitterness, smokyness, aroma and how carbonated it is. Also they can control the amount
of calories in the drink up to a certain extend. As this is a completely new product it is hard to
know what the consumers prefer. Initial market research has shown that the drink will be
perceived as similar to beers.
The marketing department has collected information on beers available in the market. They
want you, given the available data (Competition Data spreadsheet), to help them understand
the potential competition in the market. Assist them in understanding the positioning of the
competitors in the market. Is there “space” in the market for such a new product? Discuss on
potential product mixes that might be desirable (provide approximate product characteristics)
and what would be the implications for competition.
Note: You may have no or very limited personal experience of the product of Incredible Brews
Ltd. This is up to a point to be expected! If you go in this sort of business it is possible that you
will end up marketing products you do not use. However, some research on the products may
still be useful.
Part B
The product was launched successfully. Sales picked up fast and tempted other companies to
enter in the market of the new drink, as well as traditional beer brewers to step up the
competition efforts. This has squeezed the market share of Incredible Brews Ltd which has
resorted to an aggressive promotional campaign. They have provided you with weekly sales
data (Sales Weekly spreadsheet, use the sales series with your id). In the same dataset they
have indicated when there is promotional activity and provided the weekly price of their
products.
They want you to focus on the analysis of the sales of their beer. They have provided you with
the timing of the two different promotions they run. The first promotion (Promo1) is regarded
as a huge success, with massive uplift on the sales. It costs ￡40,000 every week they run it. The
second promotion (Promo2) has mediocre returns, but it is relatively cheap, costing only ￡2,000
per week. Furthermore, they have provided you with historic sales prices (Price1). They have
been changing it over time, trying to estimate what is the price elasticity of the sales.
Furthermore, they have provided you with the prices (Price2) and sales (Crisps) of their second
product, synthetic crisps, in case it is relevant. That product has some promotions running, but
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the company representatives never recorded them. They think that the beer and crisps could
be connected somehow. Finally, they have spent a lot of time and managed to gather the data
on the prices (Price3) and the promotions (Promo3) on their main competitor’s product, semisynthetic
beer. They have even planted a spy in the competing company and have stolen the
historical actual sales of the product (Competitor) and the plans on prices and promotions for
the upcoming next 13 weeks. Don’t forget that you have signed the Non-Disclosure Agreement,
so you cannot share this information with anyone outside of the company. If you do, their
lawyers will destroy you.
Incredible Brews Ltd wants you to help them on the following tasks:
Understand the impact of each promotion. Are they useful / profitable? Should they
have more promotions? What type of promotion should be preferred? Are promotions
necessary for their product?
Understand the impact of prices. Does the demand on their product have high or low
price elasticity? Did the recent changes in prices have a negative or positive effect on
sales? Should they raise or lower the prices? What should be the pricing strategy of
their crisps? What about the impact of the pricing of the competitor on their sales?
Predict the demand for their beer for the next 13 weeks. If you suggest any changes to
either their prices or promotions provide predictions with the suggested changes as
well and explain clearly why they should make these changes. Assume that you do not
have budget constraints.
Note: The demand planning team has told you that there may be a seasonal sales effect (e.g.
summer / winter).
About the report
Provide your findings in a short business report. The report should be tailored for decision
makers with adequate understanding of statistics and marketing analysis and modelling (you
should use technical terms when necessary, however you are not expected to explain what are
the methods you are using, for instance you do not need to explain what is regression). Your
analysis should be adequately documented and you should explain how you have
manipulated / processed the data and why you have selected one model or another. Note that
the report should include an executive summary for the whole work, summarising the main
findings and implications. The words count should be between 2000 and 3000 words. Be
concise with your answers. Include statistical tables and figures if necessary, but only if they
add to your arguments! Table of contents and appendix do not count against your words limit,
however they are not needed.
You will be assessed on the clarity of your report. Good structure and use of language are
expected. Make sure that your arguments are clear and that they answer the questions fully.
Remember, companies are not always fully aware of their problems, so they may not ask
exactly the right questions. However, they expect the report they get on their hands to answer
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all the right questions, clearly and with adequate evidence. Use references only if they are
needed to support your arguments / analysis. We do not need to see references for the sake of
having them!
Marks for the tasks
The marks are distributed the following way between the tasks: